Analytics: forecast, actuals, variance

This is where everything comes together.

You've set up accounts, built a forecast, and been logging transactions. The analytics view takes all of that — the plan you made and the reality you've recorded — and shows you the gap. Not as a historical curiosity, but as something actionable: the gap tells you whether you're on track for the things that actually matter to you, and by how much.

Four views, four questions

The analytics section has three views, each built around a different question.

Forecast — What does my financial future look like if my plan plays out? The forecast view shows your projected net worth trajectory, account balances over time, and expected cash flow month by month. Use this to see the big picture: is the line going up? Are there months with tight cash flow ahead? Does the plan get you where you want to go?

Past — What actually happened? The past view shows your real spending and income, broken down by category and period. Use this to understand patterns over time: where does your money actually go, month after month?

Variance — Where is reality drifting from the plan, and what does that mean for my goals? This is the view that changes decisions. Variance shows you, category by category and month by month, how actuals are comparing to the forecast — and, crucially, what the cumulative effect of that drift is on your long-term position.

Cash Balance vs Forecast — How much cash do I actually hold compared with the conservative plan? This view starts both lines from the same real opening balance. Forecast applies the confirmed plan, including conservatively placed floating obligations; Actual applies every recorded standard transaction. After the latest closed month, the actual line continues using the confirmed forecast.

Reading the forecast view

Open the forecast view when you want to think about the future. A few things to look for:

Net worth trajectory — the overall direction of the line is the most important signal. A consistently upward line means your plan accumulates. A flat or declining line means you're spending what you earn or drawing down. Neither is wrong in isolation — but you should know which it is.

Cash flow gaps — months where the projected cash flow is sharply negative are worth identifying in advance. They might be planned (a large one-off, an annual expense) or they might reveal an assumption that doesn't quite work. Seeing them three months out gives you time to prepare.

Reading the past view

Open the past view when you want to understand what has already happened. The most useful pattern to look for:

Category trends — is any category trending upward month over month? Lifestyle inflation tends to be invisible in the short term but obvious over a six-month chart.

Reading the variance view

Variance Analysis asks whether the results recognized so far have moved you ahead of or behind the goal you confirmed.

Cumulative Variance — each step is one month’s net recognized variance. Spending less or earning more than planned moves the running total up; overspending or earning less moves it down. Change the date range to examine a specific period.

Category Variance by Month — the same result broken down by category. Positive is always favorable: under plan for expenses or over plan for income. Floating obligations follow their recognition rule: favorable leftover appears when the window closes, while a breach appears immediately.

Reading Cash Balance vs Forecast

This page compares liquidity rather than recognized performance.

Forecast — the real opening balance plus confirmed forecast cashflows, including conservatively placed floating obligations.

Actual — the same opening balance plus every recorded standard transaction through the previous month.

Projected — the latest actual balance continued forward with the confirmed forecast.

The page reconciles the latest closed month’s cash gap with Variance vs Goal, separating floating-obligation timing and FX valuation effects.

Cash gap vs. goal variance

These two Analytics pages answer different questions.

The Cash Balance vs Forecast page is about liquidity. It asks: compared with the conservative plan, how much money do I actually hold?

The Variance Analysis waterfall and table are about the goal. They ask: category by category, how much has behavior moved me ahead of or behind the forecast I confirmed?

Most of the time they point in the same direction, but they need not match exactly. Open obligations may still be cash in the account, but OutBudget treats that money as committed until the window closes or the obligation is breached. The Cash Balance page reconciles this timing difference for the latest closed month.

When making a liquidity decision, look at Cash Balance vs Forecast and Safe to Spend. When deciding whether habits need to change, look at Variance Analysis.

Why this changes the question

A €150/month overspend on dining looks manageable in a single month. Annualised, it's €1,800 — and once you see it pushed forward through the projection, it might be the difference between hitting a house deposit goal on time or four months late.

That framing changes what you're deciding. It's no longer "did I overspend on dining?" It's: "is dining worth four months?" If the answer is yes — if those dinners are genuinely a priority and you're comfortable adjusting the timeline — that's a valid decision, made with full information. If the answer is no, the variance view has just shown you exactly what to change and exactly what it's worth.

The same logic runs in the other direction. A salary increase produces positive income variance. The decision becomes whether to bank the surplus toward the existing goal, pull the goal forward, or redirect it somewhere else.

Three decisions

Every time you look at variance, you're choosing between three responses.

Adjust behavior — the plan was right; you drifted. Spending less in a category, or more intentionally, will close the gap without changing the plan or the goal.

Adjust the plan — the behavior was right; the plan was wrong. The original assumption was unrealistic. Update it to reflect what's actually happening and recalibrate from the new baseline.

Accept and recalibrate goals — neither behavior nor plan can or should close the gap. Something in life changed — a new priority, a different circumstance, a decision made consciously. Accept the variance, update the goal timeline, and move forward with a plan that reflects reality.

All three are valid. What isn't valid is ignoring the variance — letting the gap accumulate without a decision, which is the same as making a decision by default.

Common questions

My variance view shows persistent positive variance on income (I earn more than forecast). Is that a problem? It means your income assumption is too conservative. Update the forecast to reflect a more realistic figure, or keep the conservative assumption intentionally as a floor. Either is valid — but be aware that planning to a lower baseline produces a misleadingly positive variance. It can mask whether your actual spending behavior is on track.